上海證券報(bào)

        ◎記者 趙明超

        2月6日以來(lái)，市場(chǎng)開(kāi)啟一輪強(qiáng)勢(shì)反彈，從AI概念股的如火如荼，到有色資源股和低空經(jīng)濟(jì)概念股的接連起舞，熱點(diǎn)輪動(dòng)十分頻繁。從主動(dòng)型權(quán)益類(lèi)基金的業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)看，過(guò)半基金凈值反彈超10%，反彈超過(guò)30%的基金過(guò)百只，反彈最高的超60%。從二季度投資策略來(lái)看，基金公司依然看好后市機(jī)會(huì)。

        Choice數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2月6日至4月8日，4000余只主動(dòng)型權(quán)益類(lèi)基金中，區(qū)間凈值漲幅10%以上的基金數(shù)量超過(guò)3400只，漲幅超過(guò)20%的基金數(shù)量超過(guò)900只，漲幅超過(guò)30%的基金多達(dá)111只。

        凈值漲幅最大的是西部利得新動(dòng)力(2.730,0.00,0.00%)混合A，高達(dá)67.36%。除此以外，西部利得策略?xún)?yōu)選混合A、長(zhǎng)城景氣成長(zhǎng)混合A、大摩數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)混合A、中航機(jī)遇領(lǐng)航混合發(fā)起A等基金反彈幅度均超過(guò)45%。

        部分基金業(yè)績(jī)領(lǐng)先可能是重倉(cāng)了AI板塊。以長(zhǎng)城景氣成長(zhǎng)混合為例，截至去年底，基金前十大重倉(cāng)股為北方華創(chuàng)(299.070,0.00,0.00%)、天孚通信(156.100,0.00,0.00%)、沃格光電(28.850,0.00,0.00%)、恒玄科技(110.070,0.00,0.00%)、景嘉微(68.260,0.00,0.00%)、廣鋼氣體(10.120,0.00,0.00%)、國(guó)科軍工(54.200,0.00,0.00%)、華恒生物(108.680,0.00,0.00%)、納睿雷達(dá)(53.710,0.00,0.00%)、芯動(dòng)聯(lián)科(33.820,0.00,0.00%)。

        還有部分基金或已對(duì)持倉(cāng)進(jìn)行了調(diào)整。以西部利得新動(dòng)力混合為例，截至去年底，該基金前十大重倉(cāng)股為浙數(shù)文化(11.010,0.00,0.00%)、易華錄(22.680,0.00,0.00%)、中文傳媒(14.510,0.00,0.00%)、久遠(yuǎn)銀海(20.210,0.00,0.00%)、三維天地(33.410,0.00,0.00%)、深桑達(dá)A(17.220,0.00,0.00%)、云賽智聯(lián)(12.110,0.00,0.00%)、中國(guó)科傳(24.270,0.00,0.00%)、中科信息(29.270,0.00,0.00%)、銀之杰(10.940,0.00,0.00%)。4月8日，成長(zhǎng)板塊有所回調(diào)，該基金當(dāng)日漲幅依然超過(guò)3%，結(jié)合當(dāng)日市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)和該基金凈值走勢(shì)看，該基金或買(mǎi)入了有色資源板塊。

        從機(jī)構(gòu)最新打法看，公私募均保持著較高倉(cāng)位。據(jù)天風(fēng)證券(2.920,0.00,0.00%)統(tǒng)計(jì)，截至4月3日，普通股票型基金倉(cāng)位中位數(shù)為84.5%，偏股混合型基金倉(cāng)位中位數(shù)為80.0%，依然處于相對(duì)高位。

        私募排排網(wǎng)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至3月29日，股票私募倉(cāng)位指數(shù)為81.08%，較3月22日增加3.17個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，這也是股票私募倉(cāng)位指數(shù)時(shí)隔24周后首次重返80%大關(guān)。具體來(lái)看，倉(cāng)位在80%以上的股票私募占比達(dá)63.05%。

        近期，多家基金公司公布二季度投資策略。匯豐晉信基金表示，在多方面因素共振下，預(yù)計(jì)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好將提升。估值處于低位的權(quán)益資產(chǎn)有望迎來(lái)價(jià)值重估。在市場(chǎng)全面修復(fù)的背景下，二季度的機(jī)會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)是百花齊放的。新經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)能成長(zhǎng)板塊和傳統(tǒng)順周期價(jià)值板塊均存在細(xì)分投資機(jī)會(huì)，重點(diǎn)關(guān)注兼顧長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展空間和盈利改善彈性的板塊。

        在萬(wàn)家基金看來(lái)，當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)程度好于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，二季度復(fù)蘇勢(shì)頭有望延續(xù)。隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息預(yù)期升溫，外資流動(dòng)性有望邊際改善，后續(xù)看好三條主線：一是高質(zhì)量發(fā)展下的數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)板塊，重點(diǎn)關(guān)注華為產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈、智能汽車(chē)、信創(chuàng)等;二是海外通脹預(yù)期回升背景下的全球定價(jià)資源品，包括黃金、油氣、煤炭、銅、電解鋁等;三是低估值高股息板塊，未來(lái)大概率獲得長(zhǎng)線資金的持續(xù)配置，屬于絕對(duì)收益品種。

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